Since the March 2020, it seems as if the entire world has stopped in its tracks. We know it is a virus that has caused this standstill, but the issue just doesn't seem to go away. New cases continue to rise, as do deaths. For a while it seemed the issue was under control, but there has been a sudden uptick in cases. Here we will analyze why this second surge has occurred. We will analyze the UK's response to covid using the dataset that can be downloaded here.
We can break down the accumulation of cases into 2 halves; before testing was available and after testing was available. We have data beginning January 31, 2020, and testing wasn't available until 2 months later on March 31, 2020.
[Fig 1](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTTv8Pb2dvx0_V2MXHWticQVrQVD7rR5VbM3iMTHmqvmezGgLD9umEf4puSmD_JCpykq0yTj1foT2M_/pubchart?oid=1524840613&format=image"></iframe>)
Fig 1
[Fig 2](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTTv8Pb2dvx0_V2MXHWticQVrQVD7rR5VbM3iMTHmqvmezGgLD9umEf4puSmD_JCpykq0yTj1foT2M_/pubchart?oid=1876738685&format=image"></iframe>)
Fig 2
As evidenced by the scaling of the two plots, it is obvious to see that more testing has led to a higher number of new cases in the UK. This still doesn't fully explain the rise in cases because as we can see in Fig 2, the uptick in cases didn't really occur until about late September. To top it off, the number of new cases has been declining since early January.
It is extremely important to know who has the virus. Hospitals can only accommodate the most serious cases, and if they don't have enough beds it can lead to otherwise preventable deaths.
[Fig 3](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTTv8Pb2dvx0_V2MXHWticQVrQVD7rR5VbM3iMTHmqvmezGgLD9umEf4puSmD_JCpykq0yTj1foT2M_/pubchart?oid=737555546&format=image"></iframe>)
Fig 3
As we can see in Fig 3, the UK is below the world average when it comes the number of hospital beds per thousand people, and lags way behind Monaco, who has the most beds per thousand people.
The lack of hospital beds can actually be a positive sign under normal circumstances. It is known that older people tend to have more serious medical issues than younger people. Hence, if the population of a country is relatively young, the government may decide to not invest as much in hospital beds.
[Fig 4](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTTv8Pb2dvx0_V2MXHWticQVrQVD7rR5VbM3iMTHmqvmezGgLD9umEf4puSmD_JCpykq0yTj1foT2M_/pubchart?oid=1340145440&format=image"></iframe>)
Fig 4
According to Fig 4, the median age of the UK is actually higher than the world average. This suggests the government may have made a mistake in not investing as much into hospital beds.